The Opportunity EngineInstitute

Software · Flagship

Opportunity Compass.

A structured scanner that puts the Opportunity Engine directly into the operator's hands. One idea in. A calibrated, no-vibes verdict out.

What it is

Compass takes a raw situation — a market, a deal, a moment — and reads it against the framework's six mechanics. It returns an Opportunity Force Index, a verdict on the ladder, and the smallest experiment that would change the verdict.

It is built to resist the things that destroy practitioners: summit fever, survivorship bias, and the disguise mechanism. The product of the scan is not optimism — it is calibration.

In developmentRequest early access →
N · VACANCYS · KAIROSW · CONVEXITYE · REFLEX.

The six mechanics

Every scan reads the same six dimensions. Each is scored 0–100 with one line of evidence.

01

Kairos Vector

Vacancy-closing velocity

Window is open AND closing soon. Urgency is real, not manufactured.

02

Reflexivity Quotient

How acting redraws the map

Moving builds the moat. Each move shifts the game in the operator's favor.

03INVERTED · higher = worse

Outfit Decay Rate

Hype residue vs. structural demand

Mostly costume. Trend skin stretched over thin underlying demand.

04

Convexity Multiplier

Asymmetry of the payoff

Cheap to test. Bounded downside. Uncapped upside.

05

Anti-Airplane Filter

Survivorship correction

The graveyard is loud. Winners look like a pattern only because the dead are invisible.

06

Summit Fever Guard

Pre-commit discipline

An honest pre-commit rule would already be firing. Step back before the fall.

The composite is the Opportunity Force Index: Kairos ×0.25, Convexity ×0.25, Reflexivity ×0.20, (100 − Outfit Decay) ×0.20, Anti-Airplane survivor-adjusted ×0.10. Rounded to the nearest 5. The index never overrides a Summit Fever trip.

A sample scan

What Compass returns.

OPPORTUNITY COMPASS · SCAN #00417VERDICT · HOLD_AND_MONITOR

OFI

62

STRUCTURE REAL · TIMING UNRIPE

KAIROS VECTOR
55› Window forming, not yet closing
REFLEXIVITY
70› Data flywheel plausible
OUTFIT DECAY
30› Modest hype residue
CONVEXITY
75› Cheap to test, large if right
ANTI-AIRPLANE
45› Two named failures · same surface
SUMMIT FEVER
00› No pre-commit rule triggered

NEXT FALSIFIABLE MOVE

› Ship a 30-day, ≤ $2k landing-page test. Trigger condition: ≥ 60 qualified inbound requests. Re-scan on day 31.

The verdict ladder

Four readings. No middle pleasantries.

MOVE_NOWOFI ≥ 75

Kairos open, costume low, no Summit Fever trip.

HOLD_AND_MONITOROFI 55–74

Structure is real; timing or positioning needs a trigger.

LIKELY_COSTUMEOutfit Decay ≥ 60

Hype skin on weak demand. Walk.

PASSOFI < 50

Or a Summit Fever rule trips, or the graveyard is the pattern.

How a scan runs

Five steps, repeatable, auditable.

  1. I.

    Describe

    One to three sentences: what, for whom, why now. No marketing language.

  2. II.

    Strip

    Compass removes hype keywords — AI, agentic, platform, OS-for-X — and scores the underlying demand.

  3. III.

    Score

    Each of the six mechanics is read 0–100 with a one-line rationale grounded in named analogs.

  4. IV.

    Audit

    The Graveyard Audit runs in parallel: at least two failed analogs are named before any verdict.

  5. V.

    Verdict

    A single calibrated read — MOVE_NOW, HOLD_AND_MONITOR, LIKELY_COSTUME, or PASS — with the next falsifiable move.

Methodology

Compass is not a recommender. It is a discipline engine. Every score is traceable to a named element of the framework, and every verdict is defensible against the Graveyard Audit.

The mechanics map directly onto the canonical vocabulary — Kairos Vector, Reflexivity Quotient, Outfit Decay, Convexity Multiplier, the Summit Fever Boundary, and the Anti-Airplane Filter.

Read the theory →Worked example: Menzgold →

Companion instruments

02 — 04

Vacancy Mapper

Concept

Visualizes structural vacancies and adjacencies across a market or geography from public data.

Kairos Watch

Concept

Tracks closing-velocity signals on watched opportunities and surfaces inflection points before consensus.

Graveyard Index

Concept

A continuously updated registry of failed analogs by pattern — the Anti-Airplane Filter, made queryable.

Early access

A small cohort of practitioners is testing Compass before public release.

Operators, investors, founders, and analysts who already think in vacancies. If that's you, write a sentence about what you'd scan first.

Request early access →