The Opportunity EngineInstitute

Research

Evidence for the framework.

Articles, white papers, datasets, and case studies that test, falsify, and extend the Opportunity Engine.

Featured · Living case study

The Menzgold Opportunity Engine.

How opportunity demand, institutional friction, and summit fever produced Ghana's largest investment collapse — read as a cautionary tale and a live diagnostic of the framework.

Read the case study →

  • White paper

    A formal model of opportunity vacancy

    2026
  • Case study

    Reflexivity in early-stage market formation

    2026
  • Dataset

    Survivorship-corrected outcomes across 1,200 ventures

    Forthcoming
  • Article

    Why kairos is not 'timing the market'

    Forthcoming
  • Working paper

    Convexity and the asymmetry budget

    Forthcoming

The Institute's research is published openly. Replication data, code, and pre-registered methods accompany each formal paper.